Presenters

Jane L Hutton, Professor of Statistics, University of Warwick
Amy L Wilson, Lecturer in Statistics, University of Edinburgh

Chair

Susan McVie, Professor of Quantitative Criminology, University of Edinburgh

About the webinar

This session will explore key statistical challenges in police investigations, with a particular focus on the analysis of clusters of deaths in healthcare settings.

Part 1:

Case study in clusters of health care deaths
Jane Hutton will discuss the statistical evidence used in the conviction of UK nurse Lucy Letby, and the ongoing debate surrounding the safety of that conviction. Investigating clusters of deaths, infectious diseases, or collapses in healthcare settings presents complex statistical challenges for forensic investigations.

While methods from epidemiology and public health are relevant, their use is not yet well established in criminal investigations. This talk will highlight effective applications of statistical reasoning and illustrate recommendations from the Royal Statistical Society’s Statistics and the Law Section using the Letby case.

Part 2:

Supporting use of statistics in police investigations
Amy Wilson will present key statistical challenges that can arise in police investigations, including apparent coincidences, dataset selection, bias, modelling choices, and access to appropriate expertise.

She will also outline recent and ongoing work by the Royal Statistical Society to support the robust use of statistics in policing, including guidance developed with the National Police Chiefs’ Council and initiatives to improve access to statistical expertise. The session will conclude with a discussion on how to prevent similar controversies in future cases.

This webinar will be relevant for researchers, practitioners, and anyone with an interest in the role of statistics in policing and forensic investigation.

Register here