A new report by academics from the Universities of Birmingham, Sheffield and City University of London and commissioned by the Office of the Police Chief Scientific Adviser provides the first estimates of the full economic burden of crime on business. These estimates have been used to evaluate the contribution of policing to business output.  

The report uses neighbourhood-level economic modelling to estimate the degree to which policing affects businesses’ direct losses, insurance costs, security expenditure, foregone investments, and viability choices. 

 Key findings:  

1. Crime has a substantial and statistically significant effect on local business output; on average, a 10% increase in neighbourhood crime is associated with a 1% reduction in business output. 

2. Crime also affects business survival: firms in high-crime areas are less likely to be started, and more likely to fail or move away. 

3. Anti-social behaviour matters for business output about as much as violent crime. The disorder anti-social behaviour produces — graffiti, vandalism, harassment — is as economically damaging to business as more serious crimes. 

4. The impact of crime differs across space according to the business activity. Businesses in rural areas, and those in the primary sector — agriculture, fishing, and related activities — are considerably more sensitive to local crime than the average firm. 

To access all work commissioned by the OPCSA in relation to Economic Growth and Policing visit Policing and Economic Growth: Evidence of Value for Communities and Businesses.  

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