The Office of the Police Chief Scientific Adviser (OPCSA) is supporting a growing body of work that examines the relationship between policing and economic growth. The studies show how the costs of crime fall on individuals, businesses and the public sector, impacting public safety, community stability, economic confidence, house prices, and poverty, among other factors, and lead to a range of economic outcomes which in turn impact negatively on economic growth. 

The studies illustrate how spending on policing is not just an investment in improving public safety but also in stimulating economic growth. By reducing crime, policing reduces the negative effects crime has on the economy, which in turn boosts economic performance. Policing is shown in the studies to enable investment, contribute to GDP, improve individual welfare, and reduce public spending on repairing the damages caused by crime. The economic returns that policing can generate are shown in these reports to be considerably higher than current levels of spending on policing and are only maintainable through continued investment in policing’s efforts to reduce crime and increase public safety. 

• The first report, produced by academic researchers at the Universities of Birmingham, Sheffield and City University of London, estimates the economic value of policing by examining the value of crime reduction for local property values, controlling for other factors such as the quality of local schools or the availability of public transport. They conclude that each £1 invested in policing yields £4.17 in economic benefits for local households. Based on this, a 10% increase in policing will generate £14.5 billion in net benefits over twelve years, equivalent to 0.5% of annual GDP.  

• The second report, produced by Crest Advisory in partnership with RSM UK Consulting, combines an evidence review with a logic model that conceptualises the links between policing activities and economic growth. The logic model provides a graphical representation of how policing activities lead to crime and societal outcomes, which in turn generate economic outcomes and impacts, and is also a transparent and replicable framework for users to apply in different circumstances. 

• The third report, produced by academic researchers at the Universities of Birmingham, Sheffield and City University of London, provides the first estimates of the full economic burden of crime on business, and uses this estimate to evaluate the contribution of policing to business output. They conclude that each £1 invested in policing yields £10.70 of economic benefit to local businesses. Thus, a 10% increase in policing will generate £7.7 billion in additional business output per year once the full effects have materialised.